الأتراك يستغيثون وكاتب بريطاني يتحدث عن "معدلات النمو الوهمية " للاقتصاد التركي
الثلاثاء, 14 أغسطس 2018 10:36

altaltقال رجال أعمال أتراك، الثلاثاء، إن هناك حاجة لسياسة نقدية أكثر تشددا لإعادة الليرة إلى وضعها الطبيعي، بعد وصولها إلى أدنى مستوى لها منذ 17 عاما أمام الدولار. وذكر رجال الأعمال الأتراك، في بيان استغاثوا فيه المسؤولين في البلاد لإعداد خارطة طريق واضحة وصريحة لعلاج التضخم الاقتصادي، 

مشيرين إلى أنه يجب "حل النزاع الأميركي التركي من خلال الأعراف الدبلوماسية"، في إشارة إلى الأزمة بين واشنطن وأنقرة بسبب احتجاز الأخيرة للقس الأميركي آندرو برانسون.

وفقدت الليرة التركية أكثر من 40 بالمئة من قيمتها مقابل الدولار هذا العام. وهبطت بنحو 18 بالمئة في أكبر خسارة يومية لها منذ 2001 يوم الجمعة الماضي، قبل أن تهبط مجددا إلى 7.24 مقابل الدولار يوم الاثنين.

ويتزايد قلق المستثمرين من تنامي سيطرة الرئيس التركي، رجب طيب أردوغان، على الاقتصاد التركي وتفاقم الأزمة الدبلوماسية مع الولايات المتحدة.

إلى ذالك تحدث الكاتب البريطاني لاري اليوت في تحليله عن الأزمة المالية التركية في صحيفة الجاردين  عن ماسماه "معدلات النمو الوهمية "

  وقال إليوت في تحليله: “قد تبدو أزمة تركيا على أنها قد أخذت شكلها النهائي، ولكنه من شأن الأزمة أن تأخذ اتجاهًا أكثر خطورة”.

و أوضح إليوت أن تركيا كغيرها من الدول النامية ربطت معدلات نموها بقروض وتمويلات ضخمة بالدولار الأمريكي، عندما خفضت الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية أسعار الفائدة في بنوكها؛ ولكن مع رفع البنك المركزي الأمريكي أسعار الفائدة مرة أخرى، وما تبعه من استقواء الدولار، بدأت معدلات النمو الوهمية تتحول إلى معدلات انهيار.

وأشار إليوت إلى أن استقواء الدولار الأمريكي أمام العملات الأخرى، جاء بالتزامن مع الأزمة بين أنقرة وواشنطن، قائلًا: “هناك ثلاثة أسباب وراء الأزمة التي تعصف بالاقتصاد التركي:

•الاقتصاد المتآكل،

• منع أردوغان البنك المركزي التركي من اتخاذ التدابير اللازمة المتعلقة بالأسعار المرتفعة، عقب انتخاب أردوغان رئيسًا للجمهورية،

•أخيرًا الأزمة السياسية المشتعلة بين أنقرة وواشنطن”.

و أكد إليوت في الجزء الأخير من التحليل أن تركيا استنفذت الوقت والخيارات المتاحة أمامها، قائلًا: “سيضطر أردوغان لتسليم برونسون إلى ترامب، لأنه يستمر في حرب لا يمكنه أن ينتصر فيها،

ولكنه يضر باقتصاد بلاده. وسيكون مضطرًا لاتخاذ تدابير صعبة ولن تكون مقبولة بالنسبة للمواطنين من أجل منع الانهيار التام لليرة التركية أمام الدولار”.

و أضاف إليوت: “إذا نظرنا إلى ما فعله أردوغان حتى الآن، سنجد أن الخطوة المقبلة له هي التحكم في رؤوس الأموال المودوعة في البنوك. ولكن هذا لن يفيد بشيء دون الحصول على حزمة مساعدات من البنك الدولي. إما أنهم سيلجؤون للاقتراض من البنك الدولي أو سيكون البنك المركزي التركي في حالة من صدمة كبيرة.

الفرص والوقت ينفذ أمام تركيا مع مرور كل يوم”.

 

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