ما هي أسباب الأزمة الاقتصادية في تركيا؟
السبت, 11 أغسطس 2018 10:42

altaltالتدني السريع لقيمة العملة التركية تتصدّر التغطية الإعلامية الأميركية في الآونة الأخيرة، لكن الرئيس التركي رجب طيب إردوغان يحافظ على خطاب الادعاء بتماسك الاقتصاد التركي وزيادة الانتاج والنمو المضطرد، ملقياً باللوم على أسباب خارجية وسياسية خاصة يتهم بها "شريحة مصالح الفائدة المصرفية، ووكالات التصنيف المالية، ومضاربو العملة".

حركة السوق تحمّل إردوغان مسؤولية التردي الاقتصادي بإعلانه نية التدخل"في عمل المصرف المركزي بعد إعادة انتخابه". وحذرت الشركة المصرفية الأميركية الكبرى، غولدمان ساكس، من  مواجهة المصارف التركية مصاعب تؤدي إلى استشراء الأزمة المالية (تدني سعر الصرف) إذا لم تتخذ الحكومة إجراءات وتدابير سريعة للحيلولة دون ذلك.

سحب الاحتياط من المصارف الأميركية هو"استجابة لدعوة الرئيس التركي رجب طيب إردوغان للتخلص من ضغط سعر العملات واستخدام الذهب ضد الدولارالذي تجلّى بسحب تركيا سنداتها المالية من الخزينة الأميركية مما يعني أن أنقرة صفّرت حساباتها في أميركا، وفق المحلل الاقتصادي التركي مصطفى سونماز.

القرار التركي لاستعادة الذهب كان ثمرة قلق انقرة وخشيتها من "مصادرة السلطات الأميركية احتياطها من الذهب في حال فرضت عليها عقوبات،" بيد أن تركيا لم تكن الوحيدة التي سحبت أرصدتها، فقد استعادت ألمانيا نحو 374 طناً من الذهب من فرنسا، بين أعوام 2013 – 2017؛ ونحو 300 طن من الولايات المتحدة، وفق بيانات البنك المركزي الألماني. فتركيا تحتل المرتبة العاشرة عالمياً بحجم احتياطيها من الذهب، 565 طناً، وفق أحدث بيانات "مجلس الذهب العالمي." اما المرتبة الأولى فهي للولايات المتحدة، 8،133.00 طناً. السعودية في المرتبة الرابعة عشر، 323 طناً؛ ولبنان في المرتبة السابعة عشر، 287 طناً.

حجم أرصدة الذهب التركية في المصارف الأميركية بلغ 220 طناً تمت استعادتها لتركيا بين 2016-2017، منها سحب نحو 29 طناً من الذهب عام 2017 لصالح البنك المركزي التركي الذي "أعاد توجيه جزء كبير من الذهب المسحوب من المصارف الأميركية إلى بنك إنجلترا وبنك التسويات الدولية،" وفق التقرير السنوي للبنك المركزي التركي على موقعه الرسمي.

التوجس الأميركي من استدارة الرئيس التركي شرقاً يشاطره به دول حلف الناتو، فضلاً عن عدم رضى الطرفين من نزعة إردوغان للتفرد بالسلطة وميله للاستبداد، وكذلك لهروب عدد من ضباط القوات المسلحة التركية وطلب اللجوء السياسي في اوروبا نظراً لعدم يقينهم بالسلامة الشخصية في عهد إردوغان.

كما أن علاقات تركيا مع اليونان تشهد تردياً مستمراً وتحرشات القوات الجوية التركية واختراقها الأجواء اليونانية أضحت ممارسة شبه ثابتة، يضاف إلى ذلك تباين الرؤى بين واشنطن وأنقرة فيما يخص التعامل مع الملف الكردي و"التحالف" المرحلي بين القوات الأميركية والمسلحين الأكراد.

مواقف الكونغرس والإدارة الأميركية تتسم بالتشدد حيال تركيا نتيجة الاعتقاد بأن تقارب أنقرة المؤقت مع روسيا وإيران يأتي على حساب التضحية بعلاقتها مع حلف الناتو. وفي هذا السياق ترتفع الأصوات المطالبة بإعادة النظر في العلاقة الثنائية بين البلدين، مما يؤثر مباشرة على صفقة المقاتلات الأميركية الحديثة، إف-35، وتجميد البت بها على المدى القريب.

استعراض لوحة العلاقات الثنائية وتنامي معدلات التردي بين أنقرة وواشنطن يبشر بتفاقم الخلافات بينهما، في المدى المنظور. غير أن العلاقة الاستراتيجية بين البلدين ربما لا تتأثر بسبب طبيعة حاجة البلدين لبعضهما البعض، وحاجة واشنطن لاستثمار دور ونفوذ تركيا في الإقليم لأن تركيا تعتبر صمام الأمان للمصالح الحيوية للغرب في المنطقة.

فدور تركيا في إشعال وتفعيل الصراع في سوريا، واستقطابها لأعداد المسلحين، تبرز حاجة ورغبة واشنطن لاستخدام تركيا كمخلب قط في صراعها مع الصين تحديداً، باستغلال علاقتها الوثيقة في تبني ورعاية "الحزب الاسلامي التركستاني،" وعماده مسلحون من الانفصاليين الإيغور – في الصين.

 

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