الغاز الموريتاني.. آثاره الاقتصادية وتأثيراته السياسية
الأربعاء, 02 مايو 2018 09:06

altaltعرفت موريتانيا خلال السنوات الأخيرة اكتشاف كميات كبيرة من الغاز من قبل  شركة كوسموس الأمريكية التي حظيت بشراكة قوية من عملاق البيتروكيماويات البريطاني شركة "ابرتش بتروليم" التي اشترت من 62% بالمائة من حقل "السلحفاة" السنغالي الموريتاني المشترك الذي ينتظر أن يبدأ الإنتاج فيه في العام 2021 

وهو ما من شأنه أن يوفر للبلد موارد مالية معتبرة مقارنة بموارده الحالية.

ونظرا لأن هذه ستكون أول مرة يتوفر فيها البلد على موارد طاقوية من هذا الحجم، فينتظر أن تساهم هذه الموارد في إحداث نقلة في اقتصاد البلد وأوضاعه الاجتماعية والسياسية إذا أحسن استغلال هذه الموارد

تسعى هذه الورقة إلى استشراف الملامح الأولية للفوائد الاقتصادية والتأثيرات السياسية لهذه الطاقة التي ارتبط اكتشافها تاريخيا بإحداث تحولات استراتيجية في البلدان التي ظهرت فيها.

أولا : الآثار الاقتصادية

تعود بدايات اكتشاف الغاز في موريتانيا إلى سنة 2002 مع اكتشاف شركة وود سايد الاسترالية لحقل بندا الذي قدر احتياطه ب 1.7 ترليون قدم مكعب، وفي  2003 اكتشفت حقل بيلكان باحتياطي قدر بـ 3.6 ترليون قدم مكعب وتم الاهتمام بشكل أكبر بحقل بندا لقربه وسهولة استغلاله، تلا ذلك اكتشاف حقلين آخرين سنتي 2004 و2005 (تيوف ولعبيدان) قدرت احتياطاتهما ب 0.7 ترليون، و  0.2 تريليون على التوالي ولكن شركة وود سايد نتيجة ظروفها الخاصة فضلت الانسحاب من هذه الحقول الواقعة في المحيط قبالة منطقة  تبعد 50 جنوب العاصمة نواكشوط، وباعته لتحالف شركات لا تزال تواصل العمل مع أن اكتشافاتها ليست بالحجم الكبير.

أما الاكتشافات الكبيرة  فهي تلك التي قامت بها  شركة كوسموس التي بدأت العمل منذ العام 2012 في المنطقة الحدودية المشتركة بين موريتانيا والسنغال واستطاعت  سنة 2015 اكتشاف كميات كبيرة من الغاز في حقل السلحفاة السنغالي الموريتاني المشترك.

وفي العام 2016 أعلن  عن وجود احتياطي مؤكد من الغاز  يقدر بـ: 25 تريليون قدم مكعب من الغاز الطبيعي عالي الجودة في هذه المنطقة، بل تشير تقارير الخبراء إلى أن مجموع احتياطي  حقلي "السلحفاة"  و"احميم بيرالله" قد يصل لــ50 ترليون قدم مكعب قابلة للاستخدام لعدة عقود من الزمن.

يشار إلى أنحقل "احميم" حقل موريتاني خالص وأنه سيكون قادرا  على إنتاج 17 تريليون قدم مكعب

ويمتاز السوق الجديد للغاز المسال بميزات عديدة تجعله مفضلا للمنتجين والمسوقين الكبار في السوق الدولية مما يغريهم بشكل أكبر بالاستثمار في منطقة الاكتشافات الجديدة ومن هذه الميزات:

-الجودة والنقاوة

-سهولة الاستخراج، وبالتالي رُخص التكلفة

-أن منطقته قريبة جدا من أوروبا وأمريكا الأكثر استهلاكا للمادة

وبتقديرات أولية يتوقع أن تكون عائدات الغاز على موريتانيا خلال العقد الأول من الإنتاج حوالي أربعة عشر مليار دولارا فضلا عن الفوائد الأخرى الناتجة عن حجم استثمار الشركات والتي سيمس الجوانب الاقتصادية والاجتماعية. مثلا سيمكن التدخل الاجتماعي الذي أعلنته شركة كوسموس من استثمار 30مليار دولار في مجالي التعليم والصحة في الدولتين، يتوقع أن تحظى موريتانيا منها بألف ومائتي مدرسة وثلاثين مستشفى

ومن الفوائد الاقتصادية الأخرى توفير خمسة آلاف فرصة عمل مباشرة، فضلا عن استفادة البلد من إنتاج الكهرباء من الغاز لغرض الاستهلاك الداخلي وحتى التصدير الخارجي.

ثانيا: التأثيرات السياسية

إذا كانت التأثيرات الاقتصادية لاكتشاف الغاز بكميات مهمة أمرا معروفا فإن التأثيرات السياسية تستحق التوقف معها واستشراف دورها في صناعة المشهد الداخلي ومن هذه التأثيرات:

- زيادة تأثير الأطراف الخارجية في الشأن المحلي من خلال دعمها للأطراف القادرة على توفير الاستقرار لأنه أهم شرط لضمان بيئة استثمارية آمنة، وفي هذا السياق ربما تترسخ المقاربة التي تبنتها الدول الأوربية في موضوع الأمن والتي نظرت دائما إلى استمرار حكم الجيش الموريتاني بوصفه الأقدر على ضمان الأمن.

- تنافس الأطراف الدولية، الساعية إلى الحصول على فوائد اقتصادية من هذه الاكتشافات، على التأثير في صناعة القرار السياسي والاقتصادي داخل البلد. وتجدر الإشارة إلى أن شركة توتال الفرنسية ضغطت بقوة حتى لا تستبد الشركات الأنكلوفاونية بفوائد الغاز السنغالي الموريتاني، وهو ما عبر عنه السفير السنغالي في دكار في مقابلة مع صحيفة لي سولي السنغالية بالقول إن الأمريكيين والبريطانيين استحوذوا على عقود الاستكشاف والاستخراج والاستغلال، رغم أن شركة « توتال » الفرنسية أبدت اهتماما بالموضوع منذ الوهلة الأولى.

وبعد زيارة ولد عبد العزيز لفرنسا في ابريل الماضي توصلت توتال ووزارة النفط الموريتانية إلى توقيع عقد لاستكشاف وإنتاج النفط والغاز بالمقطعC7 بالحوض الساحلي في المياه الاقليمية الموريتانية مقابل 70 مليون دولار

- أن وجود آفاق واعدة قد تدفع الحلف السياسي الحاكم  لتحسين شروط الاستقرار عبر صناعة تحول سياسي يسمح للطبقة الحاكمة بالاستمرار في السلطة عبر احترام الدستور ومرجعيات الشكل الديمقراطي بالدفع بمرشح يمثل الجيش والطبقة السياسية المتحالفة معه بدل الرئيس الحالي الذي يمنعه الدستور من الترشح.

على أنه يجدر بنا في ختام هذه الورقة التنبيه على أن هذه القراءة للتداعيات السياسية لتحسن الوضع الاقتصادي بفعل اكتشاف الغاز لا يعني ترجيحا لمسار سياسي عن غيره، فالعوامل الاقتصادية في النهاية ليست هي وحدها المؤثر في الوضع السياسي، بل إنها تتفاعل مع جملة عوامل أخرى، فكما يمكن أن تتحول الثروة الاقتصادية إلى عامل تسكين للمطالب السياسية فإنها قد تدفع أيضا نتيجة تنامي الوعي إلى زيادة هذه المطالب.

المركز الموريتاني للدراسات والبحوث الاستيراتيجية

 

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